Cyber War I, Acknowledging the Risk

12/21/2014

Cyber War I, Acknowledging the Risk  (with time link subsequent to this writing in addenda)

A couple of young men who were proud of living life in a marijuana induced haze decide to push the edge of international norms by making a comedy about the assassination of a world leader.  One guy, Seth Rogan, was a hit with what is known the "stoner set," which represents an increasing number of those who are thrown into adulthood with few decent job prospects and little chance of making it against the competition of robotics and cheap labor, mostly from Asian countries.  "Stoner" as I use it does not necessarily mean getting stoned, rather it is a sensibility, a way of life.  All they have to deflect an unpleasant future is taking nothing seriously -- the more absurd the joke the better, as reality would be too depressing. 

Some within the film company, Sony Pictures, tried to get them to tone the movie down, "at least don't kill the guy, or fictionalize the character."  But Rogan, who was the director as well as the star, insisted that they make the murder that of an actual living man, the dictator of twenty five million people who are under his absolute control in North Korea, Kim Jong un.  No major film maker has ever before produced a fictional account of a murder of a living national leader.  Sony Pictures never showed any concern with the international or domestic consequences of infuriating this dictator, who is descended from two men in the same position who have never hesitated to impose immense suffering on their population in the name of maintaining power.  Not only did Mr. Rogan claim that the justification, the overriding consideration of deciding to make this film, was not the possible escalation of hostilities, but that the "film was funny."  Ironically, this same sentiment was repeated by the CEO of Sony International, Michael Lynton, in a much more polished presentation even after the escalation of tension between the U.S. and North Korea had begun. 

By the time Lynton told his story in a half hour interview with Fareed Zakaria this Sunday morning, a narrative very different than described above had started to crystallize.  Rather than irresponsible individuals producing a film that breached international norms, we have these "stoners" and the company that approved the film transformed into avatars of liberty, courageously expanding the frontiers of freedom of speech.

(At this point, a week after writing this I link this article from the Washington Post after the film has been released.  It  makes the case that the film actually has the potential to do this, to achieve which I claimed to be the justification of Sony for making the film, actually goad the U.S. to see the film's message of "absurdity" of the film being part of the oppressive regime.  It's an interesting analysis that to the degree that it does change policy, both in this country and in North Korea, could change the place of this film in shaping world events for the better)

 Within a few short days, beginning with President Obama's expressed admiration for this trivialization of assassination along with his personal determination of guilt for the hack and then pronouncement of punishment against N.Korea, the impossible happened -- a unification of liberals and conservatives in a call to arms against the country of North Korea. 

Obama's statement at his news conference last week was absurd on its face.  After joking how he personally likes Seth Rogen,  he continued: " We cannot have a society in which some dictators someplace can start imposing censorship here in the United States because if somebody is able to intimidate us out of releasing a satirical movie, imagine what they start doing once they see a documentary that they don't like or news reports that they don't like"  

In reality, there have been numerous documentaries on national television just this year that describe in great detail the oppression of the North Korean regime, and that government has never expressed any objection, much less attempted to censor them.  While the President called this film "satire," if such a production were produced in this country with him as a target, especially if by those deemed among our enemies, there is little doubt that those responsible would face prosecution, as have such as Ed Snowden, who exemplifies the actual fate of those who really do advance freedom of speech. This freedom has never been absolute even in this country, with falsely crying fire, pornography and fighting words being well known exceptions.  (Here's Snoden's inside knowledge of just how vulnerable this country is to a cyber attack)

If there are unique elements of this cyber attack against Sony, it is not the extent of damage, but that it created a political opportunity -- one of a nature that has led to tragedy throughout history.  Domestic distress, such as the expanding wealth divide that carries over to inequality of  justice, is baked into our society, with no foreseeable fix available.  Just as 9-11 united our country behind the previous administration, even allowing a war to change a regime that had nothing to do with the attack, so rage against a common enemy is a sure way to bring a country together, to rally around the flag with immediate adulation of the leader.   As the guns of August 2014 were being prepared, few from the combatant countries could imagine the horrible carnage of what they all were told would be a short decisive victory.

We are moving ever closer to such a calamity, with any voice of reason being drowned out by the laugh track augmented sound of crowds indulging in mindless guffaws over the funny man with the bad haircut being murdered.  The conclusion from the CEO of Sony saying that 90% of even the most secure corporations are vulnerable to the devastating hack that started all this is simply ignored.  The threat that President Obama made did not define the method of retribution, but it is either traditional weapons or cyber attacks.  Kim Jong un, even before this escalation, has missiles -- perhaps with poison gas or nuclear warheads -- on hair trigger aimed at South Korea, with American forces there as a buffer -- both countries that he technically is at war with.  As the threat level increases, there is a greater danger of accidental launch.  And even if the U.S. were to make a pre-emptory strike, a few missiles would probably be launched with great carnage to the South; as our attack would certainly not injure the dictator, rather it would kill large numbers of his people who are his virtual prisoners. 

The other option is we choose to use cyber warfare, as was done against Iran to cause damage to their nuclear enrichment operation.  It did slow them down, yet no country is more advanced, and therefore more vulnerable than the U.S.A.  This Wall Street Journal article quotes Keith Alexander, head of U.S. Cyber Command:  "Chinese military and commercial cyber theft ($400 billion of F-35 designs) amount to “the greatest transfer of wealth in history,”  With our department of defense, NSA, major newspapers and all financial institutions and corporations vulnerable, I suggest that the only thing that is preventing a world-wide catastrophe is that it is not in anyone's interest to cause such a collapse. 

Barack Obama chose this enemy carefully.  To actually acknowledge the deep causes of this "stoner mentality" that drove this breach of norms of international comity would require that he take this  problem seriously, rather than divert attention by further demonetization  of this new national enemy.  We had been negotiating with Kim Jong-un attempting to find a way to liberate his people, which may have been a long haul, something like that we endured with Cuba's nontraditional leader Fidel Castro.  Our civilization is only here today because the national leaders of that showdown, the Cuban Missile Crisis, had the courage to back away rather than rouse their people to a catastrophic war.  Both Khrushchev and Kennedy knew what the choices were, and did not seek political gain from it.

President Obama chooses to throw the dice with our entire civilization.  The cyber world, from our home computers to smart phones that encompasses every part of our life is now a vital system that is vulnerable. The technology grew much faster than concerns for robustness and reliability could keep up with. Obama's narrative, and that of the CEO of Sony, is a mutually advantageous self serving distortion. Our country is now starting to acknowledge that the invasion of Iraq was a terrible mistake that left a vacuum filled by ISIL, the most barbaric movement since the Nazi era.  And just as Hitler ordered an extended futile last ditch defense of Berlin against the entreaties of his generals to surrender,  there is no evidence that Kim Jong un would be any more concerned with the death of millions of his minions. 

Seth Rogan and Sony Pictures made a profit-motivated decision to poke his finger in the eye of this perverse individual, and when this dictator responded to this trivialization of his assassination by damaging the corporation that produced it the President of the United States chose to turn such crude arrogation of national policy into heroism.   Obama, and those of this country of both left and right, are buying into this disastrous narrative -- which is now taking on a life of its own.  Perhaps it will just fizzle out and calmer voices will prevail.  But history shows otherwise, as the assassination in Serbia almost exactly a hundred years ago illustrates.  Both that one causing an actual death, and the current one making such a death into a joke are now starting to have the same effect.  Like then,  the temptation to escalate hatred rather than promote  rational engagement is "trending."  We are now more connected than ever, enhancing the speed of the contagion of this new brew, stoner mentality mixed with patriotic rage.  

No one could ever have predicted the historical sequelae of that assassination a hundred years ago,  which was a bloody 20th century of wars and suffering that need not have been.  And like today, if someone had made such a prediction, the chance of it being attended to would have been slim. So, ignore the gloomy man shouting from the wings, and turn up the laugh track;  as long as its funny, what else matters.

Al Rodbell
Encinitas CA
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Addenda:

Only days after the News conference described and discussed above,  the Internet system of the DPRK, was disabled for about half a day.  The reporting confirmed that the people do not have access to the international internet, having less than one millionth of the URL addresses than the United States.  This gives credence to those professionals who claim that they did not have the resources to have perpetrated the original Sony hack.
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This article from ABC News on the day after the above essay was written describes how two thirds of the world service of Youtube was disrupted for most of a day by the attempt to close a single video in Pakistan.  It concludes with this paragraph from an authority in the field:  "To be honest, there's not a single thing preventing this from happening to E-Trade, or Bank of America, or the FBI, or the White House,........."
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A Movie Studio, How About the National Grid, describes just the extent of the disaster that could be inflicted upon us if  attacks through the internet, already happening discretely among government actors, ever became overt.  This is what our President's response brings us closer to. 
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Additional essays on this subject, including early survey on Dailykos, can be found on my main website AlRodbell.com  
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Eight days after this essay was written the N.Y. Times Editorial acknowledges this danger: Deterring Cyber Attacks from North Korea